WEBVTT 00:00.000 --> 00:07.290 align:middle line:90% 00:07.290 --> 00:09.090 align:middle line:84% The origin of the black swan concept 00:09.090 --> 00:12.420 align:middle line:84% was from 16th century Europe, when all they 00:12.420 --> 00:14.940 align:middle line:90% had were white swans. 00:14.940 --> 00:17.390 align:middle line:84% And somebody along the line thought of, well, 00:17.390 --> 00:19.530 align:middle line:84% what would happen if there was a black swan? 00:19.530 --> 00:21.292 align:middle line:90% Well, it's impossible, you know? 00:21.292 --> 00:22.500 align:middle line:90% That would change everything. 00:22.500 --> 00:24.510 align:middle line:84% That would change the complexion of everything. 00:24.510 --> 00:27.390 align:middle line:84% And then not long after that, they discovered black swans 00:27.390 --> 00:28.350 align:middle line:90% in Australia. 00:28.350 --> 00:31.650 align:middle line:84% They discovered that black swans actually exist, 00:31.650 --> 00:35.350 align:middle line:84% and suddenly the impossible was possible. 00:35.350 --> 00:37.980 align:middle line:84% And it was a game-changing concept. 00:37.980 --> 00:40.050 align:middle line:84% And this has been resonated throughout the years 00:40.050 --> 00:41.425 align:middle line:84% and been picked up in other books 00:41.425 --> 00:45.270 align:middle line:84% that the black swan is something that nobody expected would 00:45.270 --> 00:48.360 align:middle line:84% happen, but in hindsight, changed everything 00:48.360 --> 00:50.990 align:middle line:90% as soon as it was revealed. 00:50.990 --> 00:53.150 align:middle line:84% So this is what great negotiation is about, 00:53.150 --> 00:54.980 align:middle line:84% discovering the black swan, discovering 00:54.980 --> 00:58.130 align:middle line:84% the piece of information that nobody expected that would 00:58.130 --> 00:59.870 align:middle line:90% change all the outcomes. 00:59.870 --> 01:01.538 align:middle line:84% It's central to everything that we do. 01:01.538 --> 01:03.830 align:middle line:84% And that's why I named my company The Black Swan Group. 01:03.830 --> 01:10.460 align:middle line:90% 01:10.460 --> 01:14.470 align:middle line:84% If you're negotiating for a salary, 01:14.470 --> 01:16.810 align:middle line:84% you might not know the behind the scenes of the company, 01:16.810 --> 01:18.970 align:middle line:84% that the person that you're going to work for 01:18.970 --> 01:20.595 align:middle line:84% is going to leave in a year, or they're 01:20.595 --> 01:22.060 align:middle line:90% going to retire in a year. 01:22.060 --> 01:23.590 align:middle line:84% You don't know what opportunities 01:23.590 --> 01:26.440 align:middle line:84% are coming in conjunction with that job 01:26.440 --> 01:29.620 align:middle line:84% that the company's already forecasted and budgeted out. 01:29.620 --> 01:31.450 align:middle line:84% You don't know who's planning on moving on. 01:31.450 --> 01:32.740 align:middle line:84% You don't know all the things that 01:32.740 --> 01:34.032 align:middle line:90% are going on behind the scenes. 01:34.032 --> 01:35.680 align:middle line:84% All you know is they've offered you 01:35.680 --> 01:38.680 align:middle line:84% this job within these parameters. 01:38.680 --> 01:43.300 align:middle line:84% But they already know, have a very good idea of the dynamics 01:43.300 --> 01:46.480 align:middle line:84% that they hope to change in the company over the next year. 01:46.480 --> 01:49.603 align:middle line:84% Finding out those dynamics behind the scenes 01:49.603 --> 01:51.520 align:middle line:84% could either make it a wonderful place for you 01:51.520 --> 01:53.860 align:middle line:84% to work or a horrible place, and it 01:53.860 --> 01:57.070 align:middle line:84% has nothing to do with the job description at the moment. 01:57.070 --> 01:59.610 align:middle line:84% The things that they know that you don't know 01:59.610 --> 02:01.690 align:middle line:90% are the black swans. 02:01.690 --> 02:04.750 align:middle line:84% Also, what they don't know about you is, 02:04.750 --> 02:08.169 align:middle line:84% you may really be committed to that company when they're just 02:08.169 --> 02:11.380 align:middle line:84% looking for someone that wants to be there for a year or two. 02:11.380 --> 02:14.603 align:middle line:84% They have strategic needs that they haven't imagined 02:14.603 --> 02:17.020 align:middle line:84% that they can share with you because they don't understand 02:17.020 --> 02:18.520 align:middle line:84% that you're the person that can fill 02:18.520 --> 02:20.890 align:middle line:90% those specific strategic needs. 02:20.890 --> 02:23.590 align:middle line:84% They have no idea what you really want out of life. 02:23.590 --> 02:26.317 align:middle line:84% What you really want out of life may be exactly what 02:26.317 --> 02:27.400 align:middle line:90% they need in that company. 02:27.400 --> 02:29.740 align:middle line:84% Since they haven't met you, they don't know that yet. 02:29.740 --> 02:31.540 align:middle line:84% This is an example of a black swan 02:31.540 --> 02:33.640 align:middle line:84% that you bring to the negotiation 02:33.640 --> 02:36.130 align:middle line:84% that they have no way of knowing in advance. 02:36.130 --> 02:39.400 align:middle line:84% So the idea is to start the communication, 02:39.400 --> 02:44.150 align:middle line:84% and for me to start getting the information flowing from you so 02:44.150 --> 02:46.400 align:middle line:84% that I can find out what those black swans are and I 02:46.400 --> 02:48.220 align:middle line:90% can change the outcome. 02:48.220 --> 02:49.690 align:middle line:90% [MUSIC PLAYING] 02:49.690 --> 02:54.110 align:middle line:90% 02:54.110 --> 02:56.060 align:middle line:84% Since I don't know what you're hiding 02:56.060 --> 02:58.730 align:middle line:84% and you don't know what I'm hiding, 02:58.730 --> 03:02.060 align:middle line:84% there's stuff in that overlap that we really 03:02.060 --> 03:03.250 align:middle line:90% don't know is there at all. 03:03.250 --> 03:05.660 align:middle line:84% You know, a long time ago, Donald Rumsfeld 03:05.660 --> 03:08.510 align:middle line:84% talked about the unknown unknowns. 03:08.510 --> 03:11.360 align:middle line:84% The real black swans are where the unknowns overlap, 03:11.360 --> 03:13.527 align:middle line:84% and there's some crazy stuff in there. 03:13.527 --> 03:15.860 align:middle line:84% You can't tell yourself, ah, I understand the situation. 03:15.860 --> 03:16.943 align:middle line:90% I understand all about it. 03:16.943 --> 03:18.320 align:middle line:90% You can't tell yourself that. 03:18.320 --> 03:21.070 align:middle line:84% That's to close your mind in advance. 03:21.070 --> 03:22.820 align:middle line:84% And there isn't anybody anywhere that says 03:22.820 --> 03:25.550 align:middle line:90% a closed mind is an advantage. 03:25.550 --> 03:29.000 align:middle line:84% So open your mind and be curious. 03:29.000 --> 03:30.530 align:middle line:90% Be interested. 03:30.530 --> 03:31.950 align:middle line:90% Wonder about it. 03:31.950 --> 03:34.250 align:middle line:84% Don't be afraid of being surprised. 03:34.250 --> 03:36.788 align:middle line:84% Actually hope to provoke surprises. 03:36.788 --> 03:39.080 align:middle line:84% You should take the attitude that if I'm not surprised, 03:39.080 --> 03:41.510 align:middle line:84% I'm not doing my job because it's not 03:41.510 --> 03:43.457 align:middle line:90% possible to know everything. 03:43.457 --> 03:45.290 align:middle line:84% And as soon as you start opening yourself up 03:45.290 --> 03:47.290 align:middle line:84% to the possibilities, you start to open yourself 03:47.290 --> 03:50.740 align:middle line:84% up to better outcomes and better relationships, 03:50.740 --> 03:53.170 align:middle line:84% and long-term relationships where the other side is 03:53.170 --> 03:55.240 align:middle line:84% actually surprised at how good the deal was 03:55.240 --> 03:57.880 align:middle line:84% and how happy they were with it, and how 03:57.880 --> 03:59.970 align:middle line:84% engaged they felt in the process, 03:59.970 --> 04:01.810 align:middle line:84% and consequently, how much they look forward 04:01.810 --> 04:03.040 align:middle line:90% to dealing with you again. 04:03.040 --> 04:05.740 align:middle line:84% All these things begin to combine 04:05.740 --> 04:08.771 align:middle line:84% to make you a more successful negotiator. 04:08.771 --> 04:10.695 align:middle line:90% [MUSIC PLAYING] 04:10.695 --> 04:15.030 align:middle line:90% 04:15.030 --> 04:18.390 align:middle line:84% The Dwight the Tractor Man case is a great example 04:18.390 --> 04:21.720 align:middle line:84% of how the discovery of a black swan 04:21.720 --> 04:24.090 align:middle line:84% leads to a breakthrough in the case. 04:24.090 --> 04:28.050 align:middle line:84% Washington, DC, St. Patrick's Day, just before 04:28.050 --> 04:30.360 align:middle line:84% the beginning of the second Iraq war. 04:30.360 --> 04:32.510 align:middle line:84% DC's kind of a touchy place at the time. 04:32.510 --> 04:37.380 align:middle line:84% You know, we're probably about a year-ish off of the DC sniper, 04:37.380 --> 04:39.810 align:middle line:84% the two people that were shooting and murdering 04:39.810 --> 04:41.860 align:middle line:90% people over the DC metro area. 04:41.860 --> 04:44.610 align:middle line:84% So there's no shortage of reasons for people 04:44.610 --> 04:47.340 align:middle line:90% to be jumpy all over the place. 04:47.340 --> 04:51.570 align:middle line:84% You know, a poor tobacco farmer drives a tractor 04:51.570 --> 04:54.420 align:middle line:84% onto the National Mall, you know, 04:54.420 --> 04:56.430 align:middle line:84% the park that's referred to as a mall that 04:56.430 --> 05:00.240 align:middle line:84% runs from basically the capital to the Lincoln Memorial 05:00.240 --> 05:02.010 align:middle line:90% in the middle of Washington, DC. 05:02.010 --> 05:05.995 align:middle line:84% Drives it into the middle of a big pond that a lot of people 05:05.995 --> 05:07.620 align:middle line:84% don't even know it's there because it's 05:07.620 --> 05:09.950 align:middle line:84% off to the side of the reflecting pool, 05:09.950 --> 05:11.670 align:middle line:84% and claims he's got four bombs and he's 05:11.670 --> 05:14.040 align:middle line:84% scattered four bombs around the DC metro area. 05:14.040 --> 05:17.430 align:middle line:84% It's a great way to get people's attention when everybody's 05:17.430 --> 05:19.305 align:middle line:84% so jittery about terrorism and war 05:19.305 --> 05:21.440 align:middle line:90% and snipers and everything else. 05:21.440 --> 05:25.500 align:middle line:84% And we engage with Dwight Watson, who we find out 05:25.500 --> 05:28.110 align:middle line:84% after the fact, his family's tobacco farm 05:28.110 --> 05:30.810 align:middle line:84% has been destroyed by the tobacco 05:30.810 --> 05:34.545 align:middle line:84% settlement and the restrictions on tobacco being farmed 05:34.545 --> 05:35.670 align:middle line:90% and how they're being sold. 05:35.670 --> 05:37.063 align:middle line:84% And it has just utterly destroyed 05:37.063 --> 05:37.980 align:middle line:90% his family's business. 05:37.980 --> 05:40.590 align:middle line:84% He's protested on the National Mall 05:40.590 --> 05:44.470 align:middle line:84% several years in a row with a legal permit and nobody cared. 05:44.470 --> 05:46.200 align:middle line:90% You know, nobody cares. 05:46.200 --> 05:48.840 align:middle line:84% So he finally decides, I gotta get somebody to attention. 05:48.840 --> 05:52.560 align:middle line:84% The best way to do it is to show up there and claim 05:52.560 --> 05:54.270 align:middle line:90% I got some bombs. 05:54.270 --> 05:56.700 align:middle line:84% The more we talk to Dwight, the more 05:56.700 --> 05:59.890 align:middle line:84% we find out about what he's after, 05:59.890 --> 06:02.550 align:middle line:84% and really what he resonates with. 06:02.550 --> 06:07.320 align:middle line:84% And he talked openly a lot about his family farm. 06:07.320 --> 06:14.470 align:middle line:84% He talked openly a lot about his time in the military. 06:14.470 --> 06:16.870 align:middle line:84% But there was, you know, any sense of duty. 06:16.870 --> 06:20.680 align:middle line:84% But there was much deeper spirituality to him. 06:20.680 --> 06:23.740 align:middle line:84% I mean, his religion was really important to him. 06:23.740 --> 06:26.020 align:middle line:84% But we only heard that in bits and pieces. 06:26.020 --> 06:28.207 align:middle line:84% We begin to talk to him, and we realize that he 06:28.207 --> 06:29.290 align:middle line:90% wants to get the word out. 06:29.290 --> 06:31.540 align:middle line:84% He wants to have made his point, and he doesn't really 06:31.540 --> 06:32.770 align:middle line:90% know how to get out of this. 06:32.770 --> 06:36.350 align:middle line:84% Probably about 36 hours in, he starts 06:36.350 --> 06:40.910 align:middle line:84% talking to us about well, when I was with the 82nd Airborne, 06:40.910 --> 06:44.120 align:middle line:84% if we parachuted behind enemy lines, 06:44.120 --> 06:48.470 align:middle line:84% we'd have to stay behind enemy lines for at least 72 hours, 06:48.470 --> 06:51.470 align:middle line:84% and then we could withdraw with dignity. 06:51.470 --> 06:53.990 align:middle line:84% He kind of throws an idea out at us 06:53.990 --> 06:56.210 align:middle line:84% that he could stay there for 72 hours 06:56.210 --> 06:58.550 align:middle line:90% and then he could withdraw. 06:58.550 --> 07:02.470 align:middle line:84% The only problem with this is he's shown 07:02.470 --> 07:04.570 align:middle line:90% to be a fairly volatile person. 07:04.570 --> 07:07.240 align:middle line:84% He still claims to have four bombs. 07:07.240 --> 07:08.950 align:middle line:90% We don't know that he doesn't. 07:08.950 --> 07:11.530 align:middle line:84% We don't know that in a fit of rage, 07:11.530 --> 07:14.180 align:middle line:90% he might not set them off. 07:14.180 --> 07:17.150 align:middle line:84% We get to the point about 36 hours 07:17.150 --> 07:20.230 align:middle line:84% in where the decision has been made 07:20.230 --> 07:22.940 align:middle line:84% that if he makes a move to the Jeep that's 07:22.940 --> 07:26.390 align:middle line:84% on the back of the trailer that's in the pond with him, 07:26.390 --> 07:29.280 align:middle line:84% that's got to be where the bombs are. 07:29.280 --> 07:32.568 align:middle line:84% If he goes to the Jeep, there's an authorization 07:32.568 --> 07:34.860 align:middle line:84% to take him out with what's called an open air assault, 07:34.860 --> 07:36.620 align:middle line:90% which is a sniper shot. 07:36.620 --> 07:39.960 align:middle line:84% In law enforcement terms, an open air assault 07:39.960 --> 07:43.020 align:middle line:84% is a sniper shooting somebody between the eyes. 07:43.020 --> 07:45.330 align:middle line:90% Nobody wants to do this. 07:45.330 --> 07:47.350 align:middle line:84% Even if we're authorized to do this, 07:47.350 --> 07:48.930 align:middle line:84% nobody wants to do this, especially 07:48.930 --> 07:54.730 align:middle line:84% with some poor guy whose family farm got crushed. 07:54.730 --> 07:56.260 align:middle line:84% So how do we get him out of there 07:56.260 --> 07:57.940 align:middle line:84% without him making a stupid move that 07:57.940 --> 08:02.290 align:middle line:84% causes his own death because he didn't know any better? 08:02.290 --> 08:06.270 align:middle line:84% That's the dilemma we're faced at about 36 to 48 hours in. 08:06.270 --> 08:09.340 align:middle line:84% We got to get him out of there before he gets himself killed. 08:09.340 --> 08:12.440 align:middle line:84% We began that negotiation knowing that, you know, 08:12.440 --> 08:15.360 align:middle line:84% let's find out what's driving somebody first. 08:15.360 --> 08:19.660 align:middle line:84% Let's worry less about what they want and worry 08:19.660 --> 08:21.820 align:middle line:84% more about what's making them want it, you know? 08:21.820 --> 08:23.710 align:middle line:84% I'm intentionally avoiding the word 08:23.710 --> 08:26.830 align:middle line:84% why here because we're very careful about the word why. 08:26.830 --> 08:28.690 align:middle line:90% So what's driving this guy? 08:28.690 --> 08:31.930 align:middle line:84% The last crucial discovery we made about the why was that one 08:31.930 --> 08:34.929 align:middle line:84% of our negotiators who was listening in-- because we have 08:34.929 --> 08:37.350 align:middle line:90% a team that listens in-- 08:37.350 --> 08:40.530 align:middle line:84% one of our negotiators heard him say something, 08:40.530 --> 08:45.060 align:middle line:84% realized that his religion was really 08:45.060 --> 08:48.700 align:middle line:84% the dominating factor in his thinking. 08:48.700 --> 08:51.220 align:middle line:90% The 82nd Airborne was OK. 08:51.220 --> 08:53.140 align:middle line:84% That mattered some, but his religion 08:53.140 --> 08:55.810 align:middle line:90% resonated with him a lot more. 08:55.810 --> 09:01.850 align:middle line:84% And about 48 hours in, we said to him, Dwight, 09:01.850 --> 09:05.790 align:middle line:84% you're gonna come out tomorrow morning, right? 09:05.790 --> 09:08.160 align:middle line:90% And he said, no. 09:08.160 --> 09:09.520 align:middle line:90% No, I'm not. 09:09.520 --> 09:11.620 align:middle line:90% Day after tomorrow. 09:11.620 --> 09:14.280 align:middle line:90% He wanted his 72 hours. 09:14.280 --> 09:16.530 align:middle line:84% One of our negotiators had heard his religion, 09:16.530 --> 09:20.490 align:middle line:84% and she had suggested that we say to him that tomorrow 09:20.490 --> 09:23.270 align:middle line:84% is the dawn of the third day, which 09:23.270 --> 09:27.460 align:middle line:84% is a reference to Christianity and Jesus. 09:27.460 --> 09:30.830 align:middle line:84% It gives them the opportunity to change the 72 hours to three 09:30.830 --> 09:36.370 align:middle line:84% days, to actually 48 hours, for him to be Christlike, 09:36.370 --> 09:39.850 align:middle line:84% to appeal to something that's a much larger issue to him. 09:39.850 --> 09:44.110 align:middle line:84% So the negotiator gets coached up, and she says, but Dwight, 09:44.110 --> 09:46.510 align:middle line:84% tomorrow's the dawn of the third day. 09:46.510 --> 09:49.260 align:middle line:84% There's a long silence on the other end of the line. 09:49.260 --> 09:51.700 align:middle line:84% And he says, I'll come out tomorrow. 09:51.700 --> 09:55.400 align:middle line:90% 09:55.400 --> 09:59.060 align:middle line:84% And we had him out that following morning. 09:59.060 --> 10:01.910 align:middle line:84% So in this case, the black swan was Dwight's religion, 10:01.910 --> 10:05.240 align:middle line:84% something we had no idea about going into the case. 10:05.240 --> 10:06.740 align:middle line:84% We're never going to tease that out 10:06.740 --> 10:09.050 align:middle line:84% unless we engage in conversation with him 10:09.050 --> 10:11.270 align:middle line:84% and we pick it up in bits and pieces along the way. 10:11.270 --> 10:13.040 align:middle line:84% And then at the one crucial moment 10:13.040 --> 10:16.710 align:middle line:84% when we need him to change his mind, 10:16.710 --> 10:19.340 align:middle line:84% we need for him to violate the other rules 10:19.340 --> 10:22.340 align:middle line:84% and come out sooner, come out a full day sooner 10:22.340 --> 10:25.430 align:middle line:84% and characterize it in a way that he can accept, 10:25.430 --> 10:29.200 align:middle line:84% that was the black swan in the Dwight Watson case.