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The origin of the
black swan concept

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was from 16th century
Europe, when all they

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had were white swans.

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And somebody along the
line thought of, well,

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what would happen if
there was a black swan?

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Well, it's impossible, you know?

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That would change everything.

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That would change the
complexion of everything.

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And then not long after that,
they discovered black swans

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in Australia.

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They discovered that black
swans actually exist,

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and suddenly the
impossible was possible.

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And it was a
game-changing concept.

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And this has been resonated
throughout the years

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and been picked
up in other books

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that the black swan is something
that nobody expected would

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happen, but in hindsight,
changed everything

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as soon as it was revealed.

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So this is what great
negotiation is about,

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discovering the black
swan, discovering

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the piece of information that
nobody expected that would

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change all the outcomes.

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It's central to
everything that we do.

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And that's why I named my
company The Black Swan Group.

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If you're negotiating
for a salary,

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you might not know the behind
the scenes of the company,

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that the person that
you're going to work for

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is going to leave in
a year, or they're

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going to retire in a year.

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You don't know
what opportunities

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are coming in
conjunction with that job

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that the company's already
forecasted and budgeted out.

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You don't know who's
planning on moving on.

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You don't know all
the things that

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are going on behind the scenes.

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All you know is
they've offered you

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this job within
these parameters.

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But they already know, have a
very good idea of the dynamics

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that they hope to change in
the company over the next year.

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Finding out those
dynamics behind the scenes

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could either make it a
wonderful place for you

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to work or a horrible
place, and it

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has nothing to do with the
job description at the moment.

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The things that they
know that you don't know

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are the black swans.

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Also, what they don't
know about you is,

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you may really be committed to
that company when they're just

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looking for someone that wants
to be there for a year or two.

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They have strategic needs
that they haven't imagined

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that they can share with you
because they don't understand

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that you're the
person that can fill

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those specific strategic needs.

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They have no idea what you
really want out of life.

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What you really want out
of life may be exactly what

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they need in that company.

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Since they haven't met you,
they don't know that yet.

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This is an example
of a black swan

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that you bring to
the negotiation

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that they have no way
of knowing in advance.

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So the idea is to start
the communication,

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and for me to start getting the
information flowing from you so

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that I can find out what
those black swans are and I

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can change the outcome.

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[MUSIC PLAYING]

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Since I don't know
what you're hiding

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and you don't know
what I'm hiding,

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there's stuff in that
overlap that we really

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don't know is there at all.

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You know, a long time
ago, Donald Rumsfeld

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talked about the
unknown unknowns.

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The real black swans are
where the unknowns overlap,

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and there's some
crazy stuff in there.

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You can't tell yourself, ah,
I understand the situation.

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I understand all about it.

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You can't tell yourself that.

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That's to close your
mind in advance.

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And there isn't anybody
anywhere that says

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a closed mind is an advantage.

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So open your mind
and be curious.

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Be interested.

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Wonder about it.

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Don't be afraid of
being surprised.

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Actually hope to
provoke surprises.

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You should take the attitude
that if I'm not surprised,

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I'm not doing my
job because it's not

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possible to know everything.

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And as soon as you start
opening yourself up

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to the possibilities, you
start to open yourself

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up to better outcomes
and better relationships,

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and long-term relationships
where the other side is

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actually surprised at
how good the deal was

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and how happy they
were with it, and how

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engaged they felt
in the process,

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and consequently, how
much they look forward

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to dealing with you again.

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All these things
begin to combine

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to make you a more
successful negotiator.

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[MUSIC PLAYING]

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The Dwight the Tractor Man
case is a great example

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of how the discovery
of a black swan

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leads to a breakthrough
in the case.

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Washington, DC, St.
Patrick's Day, just before

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the beginning of
the second Iraq war.

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DC's kind of a touchy
place at the time.

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You know, we're probably about
a year-ish off of the DC sniper,

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the two people that were
shooting and murdering

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people over the DC metro area.

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So there's no shortage
of reasons for people

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to be jumpy all over the place.

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You know, a poor tobacco
farmer drives a tractor

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onto the National
Mall, you know,

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the park that's referred
to as a mall that

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runs from basically the
capital to the Lincoln Memorial

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in the middle of Washington, DC.

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Drives it into the middle of a
big pond that a lot of people

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don't even know it's
there because it's

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off to the side of
the reflecting pool,

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and claims he's got
four bombs and he's

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scattered four bombs
around the DC metro area.

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It's a great way to get people's
attention when everybody's

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so jittery about
terrorism and war

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and snipers and everything else.

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And we engage with Dwight
Watson, who we find out

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after the fact, his
family's tobacco farm

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has been destroyed
by the tobacco

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settlement and the restrictions
on tobacco being farmed

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and how they're being sold.

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And it has just
utterly destroyed

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his family's business.

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He's protested on
the National Mall

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several years in a row with a
legal permit and nobody cared.

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You know, nobody cares.

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So he finally decides, I gotta
get somebody to attention.

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The best way to do it is
to show up there and claim

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I got some bombs.

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The more we talk
to Dwight, the more

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we find out about
what he's after,

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and really what
he resonates with.

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And he talked openly a
lot about his family farm.

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He talked openly a lot about
his time in the military.

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But there was, you
know, any sense of duty.

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But there was much deeper
spirituality to him.

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I mean, his religion was
really important to him.

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But we only heard that
in bits and pieces.

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We begin to talk to him,
and we realize that he

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wants to get the word out.

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He wants to have made his
point, and he doesn't really

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know how to get out of this.

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Probably about 36
hours in, he starts

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talking to us about well, when
I was with the 82nd Airborne,

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if we parachuted
behind enemy lines,

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we'd have to stay behind enemy
lines for at least 72 hours,

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and then we could
withdraw with dignity.

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He kind of throws
an idea out at us

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that he could stay
there for 72 hours

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and then he could withdraw.

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The only problem with
this is he's shown

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to be a fairly volatile person.

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He still claims to
have four bombs.

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We don't know that he doesn't.

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We don't know that
in a fit of rage,

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he might not set them off.

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We get to the point
about 36 hours

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in where the decision
has been made

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that if he makes a
move to the Jeep that's

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on the back of the trailer
that's in the pond with him,

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that's got to be
where the bombs are.

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If he goes to the Jeep,
there's an authorization

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to take him out with what's
called an open air assault,

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which is a sniper shot.

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In law enforcement terms,
an open air assault

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is a sniper shooting
somebody between the eyes.

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Nobody wants to do this.

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Even if we're
authorized to do this,

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nobody wants to do
this, especially

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with some poor guy whose
family farm got crushed.

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So how do we get
him out of there

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without him making
a stupid move that

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causes his own death because
he didn't know any better?

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That's the dilemma we're faced
at about 36 to 48 hours in.

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We got to get him out of there
before he gets himself killed.

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We began that negotiation
knowing that, you know,

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let's find out what's
driving somebody first.

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Let's worry less about
what they want and worry

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more about what's making
them want it, you know?

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I'm intentionally
avoiding the word

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why here because we're very
careful about the word why.

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So what's driving this guy?

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The last crucial discovery we
made about the why was that one

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of our negotiators who was
listening in-- because we have

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a team that listens in--

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one of our negotiators
heard him say something,

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realized that his
religion was really

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the dominating factor
in his thinking.

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The 82nd Airborne was OK.

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That mattered some,
but his religion

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resonated with him a lot more.

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And about 48 hours in,
we said to him, Dwight,

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you're gonna come out
tomorrow morning, right?

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And he said, no.

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No, I'm not.

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Day after tomorrow.

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He wanted his 72 hours.

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One of our negotiators
had heard his religion,

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and she had suggested that
we say to him that tomorrow

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is the dawn of the
third day, which

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is a reference to
Christianity and Jesus.

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It gives them the opportunity
to change the 72 hours to three

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days, to actually 48 hours,
for him to be Christlike,

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to appeal to something that's
a much larger issue to him.

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So the negotiator gets coached
up, and she says, but Dwight,

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tomorrow's the dawn
of the third day.

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There's a long silence on
the other end of the line.

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And he says, I'll
come out tomorrow.

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And we had him out
that following morning.

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So in this case, the black
swan was Dwight's religion,

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something we had no idea
about going into the case.

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We're never going
to tease that out

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unless we engage in
conversation with him

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and we pick it up in bits
and pieces along the way.

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And then at the
one crucial moment

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when we need him
to change his mind,

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we need for him to
violate the other rules

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and come out sooner, come
out a full day sooner

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and characterize it in a
way that he can accept,

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that was the black swan
in the Dwight Watson case.